Bursting the Capex Bubble

Navigating Deferred Maintenance & CapEx Risk in Due Diligence

Bursting the Capex Bubble

Navigating Deferred Maintenance & CapEx Risk in Due Diligence

Investors have grown more comfortable with macro and regional market conditions—including interest rates, rent growth, and the balance of new supply.  As investors re-enter the market, the focus has now shifted to property-level considerations, where physical risks and Capital Expenditure (CapEx) exposure are increasingly key factors in investment decisions.

 

 

Asset Types Affected By Delayed CapEx and Deferred Maintenence

CapEx Investments have been delayed across the commercial real estate landscape for various reasons.

In the multifamily sector, delayed capital expenditures have become more common amid rising operating costs, elevated interest rates, expanded cap rates, and tighter access to financing. Owners are often postponing renovations, amenity upgrades, and system replacements to preserve cash flow, especially in markets facing softening rent growth or increased supply. While this strategy may provide short-term financial relief, prolonged deferrals can lead to tenant dissatisfaction, higher maintenance costs, increases in vacancy, and reduced property competitiveness over time.

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Delayed Capital Expenditures (CapEx) in the office sector have become increasingly common as landlords face economic uncertainty, high interest rates, and weakened tenant demand (especially in class B and C properties). Many owners are deferring investments in building systems, amenity upgrades, and repositioning strategies to preserve cash flow amid declining occupancy and softening rental rates. While this short-term approach may ease financial pressure, it risks accelerating long-term asset deterioration and reducing competitiveness in a market where tenants are prioritizing high-quality, amenity-rich workspaces.

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The hotel sector experienced widespread delayed CapEx following COVID-era travel restrictions, as operators prioritized liquidity during a period of unprecedented revenue loss. Property Improvement Plans (PIPs) were often deferred with brand approval, while high interest rates in the post-pandemic period further discouraged reinvestment. As a result, many assets now face a backlog of necessary renovations and upgrades, which could impact guest experience, brand compliance, and long-term asset value if not addressed in a timely manner. In an environment where hotel growth projections are flat to low for the foreseeable future, big injections of capital to cure PIP and deferred CapEx issues can be challenging to justify.

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In the retail sector, delayed CapEx became widespread during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as lockdowns and capacity restrictions drastically reduced foot traffic, tenant revenues. Many landlords deferred upgrades and repositioning efforts in response to tenant bankruptcies, store closings, lease restructurings, and uncertain cash flows. The number of store closures in 2020 was a record in recent years, and some are expecting that record to be surpassed in 2025. High interest rates in the recovery period have further constrained access to capital, making it difficult to justify major investments. Tenants struggling to perform in their core business tend to defer CapEx responsibilities under the terms of their leases. This delay has left some properties outdated or underutilized, potentially impacting leasing momentum and long-term asset performance. It also shifts Tenant CapEx responsibilities back the Landlord in the worst cases.

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Asset Types Affected By Delayed CapEx and Deferred Maintenence

CapEx Investments have been delayed across the commercial real estate landscape for various reasons.

In the multifamily sector, delayed capital expenditures have become more common amid rising operating costs, elevated interest rates, expanded cap rates, and tighter access to financing. Owners are often postponing renovations, amenity upgrades, and system replacements to preserve cash flow, especially in markets facing softening rent growth or increased supply. While this strategy may provide short-term financial relief, prolonged deferrals can lead to tenant dissatisfaction, higher maintenance costs, increases in vacancy, and reduced property competitiveness over time.

Explore Multifamily Services

HVAC system on rooftop of a building

Delayed Capital Expenditures (CapEx) in the office sector have become increasingly common as landlords face economic uncertainty, high interest rates, and weakened tenant demand (especially in class B and C properties). Many owners are deferring investments in building systems, amenity upgrades, and repositioning strategies to preserve cash flow amid declining occupancy and softening rental rates. While this short-term approach may ease financial pressure, it risks accelerating long-term asset deterioration and reducing competitiveness in a market where tenants are prioritizing high-quality, amenity-rich workspaces.

Explore Office and Healthcare Services

The hotel sector experienced widespread delayed CapEx following COVID-era travel restrictions, as operators prioritized liquidity during a period of unprecedented revenue loss. Property Improvement Plans (PIPs) were often deferred with brand approval, while high interest rates in the post-pandemic period further discouraged reinvestment. As a result, many assets now face a backlog of necessary renovations and upgrades, which could impact guest experience, brand compliance, and long-term asset value if not addressed in a timely manner. In an environment where hotel growth projections are flat to low for the foreseeable future, big injections of capital to cure PIP and deferred CapEx issues can be challenging to justify.

Explore Hotel Services

In the retail sector, delayed CapEx became widespread during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as lockdowns and capacity restrictions drastically reduced foot traffic, tenant revenues. Many landlords deferred upgrades and repositioning efforts in response to tenant bankruptcies, store closings, lease restructurings, and uncertain cash flows. The number of store closures in 2020 was a record in recent years, and some are expecting that record to be surpassed in 2025. High interest rates in the recovery period have further constrained access to capital, making it difficult to justify major investments. Tenants struggling to perform in their core business tend to defer CapEx responsibilities under the terms of their leases. This delay has left some properties outdated or underutilized, potentially impacting leasing momentum and long-term asset performance. It also shifts Tenant CapEx responsibilities back the Landlord in the worst cases.

Explore Retail & Mixed Use Services
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The “Capex Bubble” is not just a future risk—it’s a present due diligence challenge that requires deeper scrutiny and smarter forecasting.

 

From 2016 to 2020, favorable market conditions allowed many properties to coast without performing major capital improvements. Then, from 2021 to 2024, economic uncertainty, tighter budgets, and expensive construction capital made it difficult for owners to fund needed upgrades. The result? A significant backlog of deferred maintenance—particularly concentrated in properties built or renovated between 2005 and 2015—is now surfacing in due diligence processes.

This CapEx pressure is reshaping how managers, investors, and lenders approach risk, especially in deals involving aging systems that are hitting the end of their useful lives all at once.

 

Key Considerations

Risk of Coincident Failure & Replacement

Properties built 2005–2015 are now in double-digit ages. Deferred maintenance often clusters across systems—when multiple components simultaneously fail, replacement costs escalate significantly. Underwriters must revise lifetime capital forecasts accordingly.

Pressure on Underwriting Metrics

Underwriters typically model capex as a fixed percentage of revenue or NOI, which can dramatically underestimate real costs. In current markets, many models assume 3–5% of income for CapEx—but deeper backlogs can easily double that. Incorrect assumptions erode DSCR, NOI, and loan-to-value ratios.

Looking Ahead: Post-2025 Outlook

Ongoing data indicates construction slowdowns will begin easing in late 2025 . Rent growth may follow as supply aligns with demand. Yet, for assets built in 2010–2015, CapEx risk doesn’t fade—if anything, it intensifies. Smart due diligence now can: Identify properties with manageable backlogs; Forecast capex phases realistically; Protect value through covenants or reserves.

Conclusion

The “Capex Bubble of 2025” is a real, measurable risk arising from delayed investments in building systems during 2016–2024. Properties—especially those built or last remodeled in 2010–2015—represent concentrated exposure to deferred maintenance. Grounded due diligence is an essential tool for navigating this capex challenge. As a PCA firm, our role is more critical than ever in surfacing these hidden risks and preserving value for stakeholders.

David Jones - Director of Real Estate Services

"Grounded due diligence is an essential tool for navigating this capex challenge."

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